A red congressional midterm tsunami, widely anticipated to come ashore Tuesday night, by the end of the week turned out to be only a high tide, at best.The GOP should take a majority in the U.S. House, eventually, but the votes were still being counted in enough unexpectedly tight races that outcomes were still up in the air Friday.In the end, the majority will be so close that neither side can claim anything close to a mandate.As talk of a conservative coup against GOP House leadership percolated last week, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, R-Jefferson, quickly said Wednesday he wouldn’t participate. He then sent colleagues a letter asking to support his bid to become House Majority Leader, the No. 2 post. His letter mentioned partisan grievances but focused on how a Republican majority House would operate for the next two years beginning in January. Scalise memo 110922Going into this election with historic winds at their back, Republicans confidently predicted a House majority of 25 or so seats. That total would have amounted to a clear repudiation of President Joe Biden and allow easy rollback of Democratic-dominated measures.Instead of a Republican mandate, Biden said Wednesday night, “the overwhelming majority of the American people support the elements of my economic agenda — from rebuilding America’s roads and bridges, to lowering prescription drug costs, to a historic investment in tackling the climate crisis, to making sure that large corporations begin to pay their fair share in taxes.”He added that he would invite Republicans to the White House later this month to find areas of common ground but would not budge on abortion access or changes to Medicare and Social Security.The thin majority also gives the GOP’s far-right flank, many of whom are members of the Freedom Caucus, more stroke with the mainstream Republican House leadership.Here’s how it works:For the internal leadership votes, scheduled for Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., needs only a simple majority to become the presumptive speaker of the house. Come January, when the entire House votes on the top spot, McCarthy needs 218 votes from the 435-seat House.If the Republican majority had been the 20-25 seats, McCarthy would have enough votes. But since the GOP majority is only a handful, the House Freedom Caucus can withhold their votes in January and deny McCarthy a majority, The caucus can wrench concessions out of the leadership in return for its votes.The far-right conservatives want changes that include greater flexibility to throw out the speaker and other leaders while Congress is in session, which is now not allowed under current rules. The Freedom Caucus demands also include a seat on the party’s steering committee that decides which members get plum committee assignments, as well as a rule to prevent GOP leadership from cutting deals with Democrats on measures conservatives don’t support.Freedom Caucus “What’s Next” reportSome of the House’s most conservative representatives also want to, in their words, “wage war against the woke and weaponized” Democrats. That includes impeachment proceedings against Biden – a bridge the GOP House’s leaders, so far, have been unwilling to cross.A master of finding common ground, Scalise’s Wednesday letter promises all sorts of investigations.Under the heading “Hold the Biden Administration accountable,” Scalise wrote that a GOP majority House would “prioritize oversight” over the Democratic White House.“We must be relentless in our oversight of this Administration. From the politicization of the Justice Department to the job-crushing regulations coming from every agency, we need to shine a bright light on the actions and policy failures of this administration,” Scalise wrote without being more specific.He then pivots to the need for a Republican House majority to get stuff done.He reminded his colleagues of what got passed with his help as whip, including conservative legislative successes like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, an updated version of NAFTA signed into law in 2020, as well as holding Republicans unified in their opposition to Biden’s spending plans.“As your Majority Leader, I will work relentlessly to usher our vision through the House and show the country how conservative ideas can solve the problems that families are facing,” Scalise wrote. “As you know, we are prepared for this moment. Through your engagement on the various task forces, we were able to develop the bold, conservative agenda laid out in the Commitment to America. Now it is time to turn that Commitment into action.”
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